December 29, 2023

Why am I sitting here doing this on the last trading day of the year? Because I have seen uncountable commodity market moves take off exactly when it was the last thing anybody was expecting…Like right when everybody is thinking, “Holidays!”, and NOT imagining anything big being even close to imminent. But that IS the way this stuff works.

Yeah…SOYBEANS!...again. But they did close dead on their lows today…and with 1000's of farmers who have been waiting until Jan 1 to do some selling...and the market now at 3 MONTH LOWS...the action next week could be "interesting." I honestly can't even begin to suppose that ANY end users will be feeling the need to step up as buyers next week when they KNOW there is a ton of producer selling coming RIGHT NOW...But those farmers? In reality, these ARE pretty much the lowest prices since last summer...BEFORE they even knew what their crops would be like... And I would think ANY further decline is going to unleash a steady stream of potentially heavy selling.

Once again, I think we’re there…where, in TYPICAL commodity market fashion, THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT.

And these option prices might be quite different come next Tuesday…especially if Soybeans were to “gap down” on the opening…which, I believe, is a very definite possibility.

Contact me if you think this makes sense and is worth the risk…

Happy New Year,

Old Hand Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans