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September
9, 2025
This
newsletter addresses Interest Rates and the Stock Market, but before diving
into what I think is EXTREMELY pertinent research, here’s a quick update on
today’s Limit Down Close in Cattle.
Last week, both Feeder
Cattle and Live Cattle had their first weekly reversals lower in six weeks.
Is this it? On no news, they were sliding lower every day from Monday thru
Friday last week…And then started this week, again on NO NEW, with both
contracts in the tank, INCLUDING 9.25 CENT ($4625 PER FUTURES CONTRACT
LIMIT DOWN IN FEEDERS.
As I have
repeatedly pointed out, the Cattle market is more LOADED with Spec Longs
than at any time in history (by miles)…and that when the break comes, there will be no
attributable news to “justify” it as, per 50 years of history, they pretty
much just go straight, straight down…And oh, yeah, I KNOW there are a TON
of people out there thinking, “They’ve done this before. They’ll go right
back up,” or, “This is just a correction. The cattle just ain’t out there.”
And this is, as it is at EVERY top, is going surprise the you-know-what out
of all of them.
JUST AN AVALANCHE OF
LIQUIDATION IS COMING…and I’m sorry, but a whole country full of cattlemen
who have blindly bought calves and steers up here at the most insane prices
EVER are about to get blasted.
 
No telling what today’s
limit down close will bring tomorrow…so it’s useless to post any option
quotes today. DO know this, I believe, is just the 2nd week of a
6 month move…so no…you haven’t “missed it.” But if you have thought about
getting on, I’d say go ahead and call me and GET IT DONE…
BUY
THE 10 YEAR NOTES
BUY TREASURY BONDS
I am both right and wrong about the
markets…But one thing I “know” is that: WHEN YOU KNOW THE
WHOLE SPECULATIVE WORLD IS ON ONE SIDE OF THE FENCE, AND I DON’T CARE HOW
STRONG THEIR “LOGIC” APPEARS TO BE…YOU BET IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION.
Or to quote one of the greatest traders
ever, “Start by assuming the market is always wrong, so if you copy
everybody else on Wall Street, you're doomed to do poorly.”
I HAVE NEVER EVER SEEN WALL STREET SPECULATORS AS ONE
SIDED IN THE MARKETS AS THEY ARE RIGHT NOW IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE INTEREST
RATE FUTURES CONTRACTS. IN BLACK AND WHITE (ACTUALLY RED AND GREEN ON THE
CHARTS BELOW), THEY ARE MONSTOUSLY SHORT UNITED STATES TREASURIES, IN
MINDBOGGLINGLY RECORD NUMBERS, MEANING THAT THEIR BET IS THAT NOTE AND BOND
YIELDS/RATES WILL BE GOING HIGHER.
I AM
TAKING THE OTHER SIDE. I BELIEVE THAT THE 5 YEAR NOTES…AND THE TEN YEAR
NOTES…AND THE TREASURY BONDS…ARE ALL SCREAMING, SCREAMING BUYS.
I HOPE you can decipher
what these next four charts are saying…
TWO YEAR
NOTES
FIVE
YEAR NOTES
TEN YEAR
NOTES
LONG TERM TREASURY BONDS
At a minimum, with all of these markets having been
consolidating for a LONG time, some sort of
truly directional move is very much overdue…
Aside from my STATISTICAL observation that EVERYBODY is
short these markets, I’ll also state that anyone who wants to believe all
the horse manure about US Treasuries no longer being INTERNATIONALLY
REGARDED as the safest and most widely held fixed income paper on the
planet, or no longer representing THE best safe haven paper asset there is,
or no longer an alternative to stocks when they “fall out of favor” (it’s
coming!), or no longer are the PRIMARY fixed income instrument by held by
just about every pension fund, bank and insurance company in the USA?
Anyone who believes ANY of that is making a big mistake. US TREASURY BONDS ARE THE
GLOBAL GOLD STANDARD FOR FIXED INCOME…AND WHEN YOU CAN BUY THEM AT A
ROUGHLY 40% DISCOUNT TO WHERE THEY WERE 5 YEARS AGO, THAT’S WHAT YOU DO.
I won’t belabor it but I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT EVERYBODY IS BASICALLY CONTENTEDLY LONG
EVERYTHING…HOT STOCKS, CRYPTO, PRECIOUS METALS, COMMODITIES---TO AN
EXTENT THAT I’D CALL IT “COMPLACENTLY BULLISH”---And
in this investing MOB PSYCHOLOGY GAME,
THAT SORT OF FAIRLY UNANIMOUS “BLASÉ” BULLISH ATTITUDE USUALLY LEADS TO AN
ALWAYS TOTALLY UNEXPECTED “CRAP OUT.” So yeah, I remain of the opinion that big sell offs
are coming in all of those areas…And that the market “nobody” is in, US
Treasuries, are going up from here…and BIG.
WHY SELL STOCKS HERE?
Very briefly, I basically think the economy is in
serious trouble, mostly as a function of the policies and actions of Herr
Trump’s disassembling just about everything there is in the country:
Cutting services, killing jobs, killing entire departments, killing crop
prices, scaring cheap labor (NECESSARY to any number of industries) into
hiding or running out of the country, destroying just about EVERY
diplomatic relationship we’ve had with our longstanding Allies, and then
the moronically SENSELESS Tariff Thing, which in NO way is a positive for
domestic and internationally trade (including all the threats, extremes,
and of course, the abrupt reversals)…has left the CEO’s of this country’s
biggest companies in shock…paralyzed because nobody knows what’s coming…while
at the same time, the average consumer is choking on high prices at the
grocery store and everything else they buy…and this is with the tariff’s
effects JUST beginning to kick in, whether it’s at Walmart, Wendy’s, Home
Depot or anywhere else…I could go on and on in great detail but I’ll just
leave it at this: Paralyzed CEO’s, and business people at any level, is NOT
conducive to growth. Nor is it conducive to spending when consumers ARE
choking on prices in every aspect of their lives. Nor are the very REAL job
losses (that Trump delusionally denies) indicative of growth. And finally,
it belies an absolutely total ignorance of history to suppose that SENDING
THE ARMY INTO THE STREETS is at all a good thing in a democratic economy.
And no, I DON’T know where everything is headed…but I
CAN’T HELP BUT THINK THAT ANY INVESTMENT IN STOCKS, CRYPTO OR PRECIOUS
METALS HERE COULD BE SERIOUSLY UNDERWATER 3-6 MONTHS FROM NOW.
GETTING BACK TO THE REAL REASON FOR THIS
NEWSLETTER…BUYING THE INTEREST RATE MARKETS…
Take another look at those Commitments of Traders and
Open Interest charts above…and be fully aware of just how historically, and
incredibly short, the Speculative Funds are…And then note on the next chart
that they MUST already be showing losses…pretty much across the board.
Here’s where I am taking
positions…in the two contracts that will move the biggest…I’d say do both,
or either one. It doesn’t matter…JUST DO THIS…when “nobody else” is…
Hell of a trade I
think…Last thought would be to remind you that there ARE two major paper
investment instruments. One is STOCKS. The other is BONDS…They BOTH have
their periodic days in the sun. And for as long as I’ve been doing this
business, when everybody loves one of them, and “hates” the other…IS when
you jump on the “other.”
Lots of ways to do
this…And I have to add that these options look as cheap as I have ever seen
them in the Treasury market.
Thanks if you read all this…and if you did, and you “get
it,” DO call and do something with it.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Notes and Bonds, Feeder Cattle and Live Cattle
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