August 7, 2023

 No real news…

And Soybeans down about $1.25 in 8 trading days?

Even when “China is buying!”?

I firmly believe the Collapse has begun…

50 years of Soybean charts says that at some point they just totally go into crash mode, wherein, I don’t care what analysts are saying, I don’t care what the fundamentals supposedly are, I don’t care if China is buying, and I don’t care how LONG they have been sideways…Sooner or later, as they have done FOREVER, from one day to the next, Soybeans start down and drop 25-35% within 8-10 weeks…And when it happens, to say that it surprises everybody, analysts and farmers included, would be a massive, massive understatement…which is NOT unusual. That IS how the markets work.

With Corn and Wheat, in spite of weather and the continuing escalation in the War, already back at 18 month lows…And having seen a number of major commodities experience at least 40-50% drops during the past year (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Unleaded Gas, Copper, Wheat, Oats, Cotton, Lumber, Bitcoin and Coffee), and to reiterate, knowing the history of how Soybeans DO go down, my own attitude here is to assume that, excepting the recent weather scare, THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE RELENTLESS COLLASPE THAT HAS KEPT ME LEANING SO BEARISH IN THIS MARKET. A 30% decline takes November down to about $10.00 and I DO think that is the minimum downside target from here.

One more time…Here are some of those Soybean market histories (just since 2004) that are representative of what happens over and over and over in this market…And as I note, even though these large sell offs are the NORM, they always seem to surprise the agricultural masses.

And they ALL just start with one “insignificant” down day…on NO real news…

I think this move IS in gear…Down 30 cents today and now about $1.25 off last week’s high tick…

Here’s one option with a lot of leverage…

Call me if you want to do something with this…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB. 

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans