August 2, 2023

 I am fully back on

Short Corn and Soybeans…

Between hot, dry weather and the recent Ukraine/Black Sea developments, “roller coaster” does not even begin to describe the action in Corn, Wheat and Soybeans during the past few months, with major bullish and bearish reversals having been seen in at least one of them on almost an every week basis…BUT…I think we are all done with that and will now return to the bearish trends that began in all three markets well over a year ago.

Specifically, after all the banging back and forth since May, Corn is now within one good down day of making new 18 month lows…and I think now (again) has a target of under $4.00 a bushel.

Wheat, which was THE crop most directly impacted by Russia’s invasion, has now lost 50% of its value and is quite close to making new 2 year lows.

And Soybeans, that just last week, based on weather concerns (now gone) were breaking into new highs, have absolutely failed during the past 4 days, leaving the recent “break out,” which, yes, I was ready to go with on the upside, as a classic “fake out break out,” and now appear to be headed down in very much the same way as we already seen in Corn and Wheat…that being, just a day after day after day of truly straight down trading.

For sure, when the market has been jacking up and down like it has, it’s only natural to be worried that getting short again could mean another upward blast against you, but it’s also only natural that, at some point, the markets settle down…and then just head relentlessly and brutally lower in the way that row crop bear markets have done for as long as the futures markets have existed.

Here are the options I would recommend here…and NOW…I think all three of these markets are NOW resuming their collapses lower.

Believe me, this recent whipsaw action has SERIOUSLY burned me financially…but one of the things I have taught myself is that I cannot let what HAS happened (losing money) affect my decisions as to what I do next…by which I mean: When I see a big opportunity, as I DO here, my attitude has to be, “What would I do with this trade if I was just now walking up to the table with a full wallet and hadn’t just lost my ass? What SHOULD I be doing now”, NOT, “I’m scare I might lose again.”

And that IS where I am with this…I think this is a killer trade…I STILL SEE SHORT CORN AND SOYBEANS AS A MONSTER POTENTIAL TRADE…THAT THE “SLIDE” LOWER WE’VE SEEN FOR THE PAST YEAR IS ONCE AGAIN TURNING INTO AN OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE…that 6-9 months from now…and I don’t know how many times I’ve seen it, farmers will be in disbelief as to how low prices have gotten.

Call me if you want to go on this.

I am all over it…and still see it as a chance make a big, big hit…an literally, during the next few months. Obviously, if you follow me, and I’ve got this wrong, you, like me, can lose 100% of what invest.

Thanks,

BILL

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Wheat, Soybeans