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June 22, 2022

As I keep reminding you, virtually EVERY top in the history of commodity trading has been accompanied by herds of STILL bullish analysts talking about “tight supplies”, “strong demand” and “value at these levels,” and in truth, while all of those suppositions might be correct, they actually constitute the reasons prices HAVE GONE UP…Those are the reasons why prices ALREADY are at nosebleed levels…and generally speaking, have nothing to do where we will be 3-6 months in the future…which IS what we are trading right now. In other words, “Supplies are tight? Really? Maybe that’s why we’ve BEEN to all-time highs in Soybeans???”

I continue to maintain that every possible bullish factor has ALREADY been built into prices…and that 50 year histories suggest that the next quite TYPICAL development we get is almost straight down for the next 2-3 months…And I CONTINUE TO URGE YOU TO GET SHORT NOW. BUY PUTS NOW. SELL FUTURES NOW.

Any number of analysts would have you believe all of the declines you’ll see here are just “pullbacks,” “corrections,” or “buying opportunities.” But, for one thing, I cannot imagine that there is really ANYONE LEFT who would be a buyer here that hasn’t already bought these markets…And secondly, MY VERY STRONG OPINION IS THAT THESE MARKETS ARE ALL BEGINNING OUTRIGHT PRICE COLLAPSES.

 
I would suggest that the next five charts…which, according to the analytic community, are all supposedly still in bull markets…are ALL CLASSIC COMMODITY TOPS, the likes of which I could show you 100’s of virtually identical examples from the past 50 years…

 

IT’S BEEN A WHILE IN COMING, AND PAINFUL, BUT I ABSOLUTELY, TOTALLY THINK WE ARE THERE…WHEREIN ALL OF THESE MARKETS WILL GENERALLY DO NOTHING BUT GO DOWN FOR THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS (AND LONGER, REALLY)…AND I THEREFORE URGE YOU, AGAIN, TO IMMEDIATELY GET SHORT ANY OR ALL OF THEM.

 

 

Today’s markets are the most volatile I’ve seen in my 4 decades doing this…wherein ultra-fast, gigantic moves have pretty much become the norm. And I don’t think any of these shorts is going to be an exception to that. I might have my head up my you-know-what, but I view these trades as once-in-a-career type opportunities.

 

 

As Cotton and Wheat have recently been the biggest movers, and are furthest from their highs, at this very moment, I would like to see some sort of pause, or bounce up, before doing anything new with them…So for today, my recommendation is to immediately buy puts in both the Soy Complex and Corn…and I would definitely do them both…right here…right now. Do NOT start thinking, “I’ll get on when they get back up to…..” Right now? To me, it’s GO time.

And yeah, I am like the boy who cried “Wolf!” with my recommendations to be short these markets for quite some time, but they ARE starting to pay now…and I firmly believe that they have ALL “permanently” cracked and will be going down for, really, quite a long time…And Ukraine, I believe, which came out of nowhere, is the ONLY reason these markets didn’t roll over several months ago…BUT, with the war now being some degree of old news, and compensated for in market prices, I DO THINK THERE IS NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN FROM HERE…100% of the time we are either in Bull markets or Bear markets…and the next stage, I think, beyond any doubt, is BEAR…and a big one.

And if you’re interested, I am just as bearish Crude Oil as I am any of these markets…

Call me if you want to know more.

Thanks,

Bill

 

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All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soy, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil

 

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