Croker-Rhyne Co., Inc.

Main Page  |   Philosophy  |  Current Recommendations  |  Newsletter Archives
Contact Us

May 2, 2016

 

Back on February 18th, I led off my newsletter with the following headline…

I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT COMMODITY PRICES ARE READY TO RISE AND THAT SOME OF THOSE COMMODITIES ARE SET TO DO SO EXPLOSIVELY…and ESPECIALLY THESE TWO…

 BUY SOYBEANS…SPECIFICALLY, SOYBEAN MEAL…

&

BUY WHEAT

I followed by noting how overwhelmingly bearish analysts were everywhere…in spite of RECORD WORLD DEMAND FOR SOYBEANS & WHEAT…and also noted that Large Speculative Funds were more short in Soybean Meal than they had been in 10 years, as well as the fact that THOSE SAME FUNDS WERE HOLDING THE LARGEST SPECULATIVE SHORT POSITION IN ALL OF COMMODITIES TRADING HISTORY IN WHEAT…WHILE COMMERCIALS WERE HOLDING RECORD LONGS.

My contention was…and still is…that sooner or later  I could see no other outcome than a massive rally in both markets…that, while anything can happen in the futures markets, I HONESTLY could not imagine that these speculative funds would “win” against the commercials…that with prices for both commodities already below the price of production, my opinion was/is there is no way these record short positions could do anything but lose money.

HERE IS THE CHART I INCLUDED FOR SOYBEAN MEAL TO ILLUSTRATE MY POINT…

2-17-16soymealcommitments3.png

And here is what has been happening there…

 5-2-16july2016soymeal.png

This IS about as straight up as you ever get...and for various reasons I think this move, as big as it might look, is far from over...But believe me, I don't show you this to say, "Look how smart I am" (PLENTY of times I am NOT), but simply to emphasize what CAN happen when you get an Massive Overload of Short Speculators positioned directly opposite an equally Large Commercial Long Position...WITH MY PRIMARY POINT BEING, THIS OVERLOAD IS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN WHEAT...WHICH IS STILL HANGING "QUIETLY" NEAR ITS LOWS... AND I BELIEVE IS ABOUT TO ERUPT HIGHER IN THE SAME WAY SOYBEAN MEAL HAS DURING THE PAST 3 WEEKS...AND TO SAY, YOU NEED TO BE THERE BEFORE IT GETS STARTED.

So take a look at the Wheat breakdown as of last Friday….

5-2-16sheatcommitments.png

I CONTINUE TO THINK A MOVE TO $7.00-$7.50 WOULD BE EASY…

Here’s what I am doing a today’s levels…TOMORROW.

5-2-16july16wheat.png

The long term look…

5-2-16wheatmonthly.png

Buy this market now…BEFORE it starts moving…

I think this one is READY…Markets ARE moving here…If you have the risk capital and ever intent to do anything with the futures markets, I don’t think you will get a better risk reward than this (especially using the 1&1 approach)…In some ways, I would kind of suggest that if this idea is not something that would interest you, you need to send me an email and ask to be taken off my list…For real, this may not work… but I honestly don’t think it gets any better than this…

FOR ME PERSONALLY, I DO NOT WANT TO BE OUT OF THIS MARKET FOR A SINGLE DAY…I HAVE SEEN IT TOO MANY TIMES…I NEVER COULD HAVE TOLD YOU THAT SOYBEAN MEAL WOULD START ROCKETING HIGHER 3 WEEKS AGO…AND I DO THINK IT COULD BE THE SAME THING WITH WHEAT…SO I WILL NOT BE OUT OF THIS TRADE…TO THE CONTRARY, I WANT AS MUCH OF THIS AS I CAN GET…

Give me a call if you’re interested…and get some of this market that EVERY analyst I read seems to hate…and keep bleating about  “too much supply”.

Thanks,

Bill

866-578-1001

770-425-7241

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions.

 The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has financial interests in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybean Meal, Wheat

 

Main Page   |  Philosophy  |  Current Recommendations  |  Newsletter Archives 
Contact Us