April 25, 2023

Why?

As in, why I am STILL so intent on being short Corn and Soybeans?

Because I have been here before…wherein you don’t know exactly when something is going to happen…but you DO know that it WILL…And that when it does, especially with the ultra-high prices we have now, strictly as a function of math, it does represent a potential opportunity to “make a small fortune.” I base this opinion on the fact that for decades, following bull markets Corn downswings have routinely been in the $1.50-$2.00 range, or $7500-$10,000 per futures contract…and in Soybeans, it’s more like $3.00-$5.00 or $15,000-$25,000 per contract. And believe me, just because these two markets have stayed up…sideways for almost a year now…does NOT mean that what I would call an inevitable massive decline is NOT staring us right in the face…right here…right now…as the realization sets in that contrary to a year’s worth of hype, we are NOT about to “run out of” Corn or Soybeans.

Farmers are now in the fields planting this year’s crops…while at the same time still sitting on monstrous inventories from last fall that generally HAVE TO BE SOLD before their new crops get harvested…which, in my mind creates the perfect timing for the 30-35% sell offs that have been COMMON for the past 50 years…AND I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THE PAST WEEK’S 50 CENT DECLINE IN CORN…AND 85 CENT DECLINE IN SOYBEANS…ARE ONLY THE BEGINNING OF COLLAPSES THAT WILL BASCIALLY LAST UNTIL LATE SUMMER…AND THAT, MUCH TO THE DISBELIEF OF FARMERS AND ANALYSTS, WE WILL SEE, AT A MINIMUM , $4.25 JULY CORN AND $11.50 JULY SOYBEANS.

Think what you will, that “He’s been saying that for months,” but this IS a script I’ve seen before, where something takes so long to happen that the masses discount it as even being a possibility…but then, eventually it DOES crack…and with a classic futures markets vengeance that has the whole ag world then becoming STUNNED by the size and velocity of the sell-off…even though this sort of thing is NORMAL in this business (as recently witnessed by 40-50% declines in Wheat, Cotton, Crude, Lumber, Natural Gas, etc.).

I am totally all over his, and as I said, see this as having the potential to make a BIG, BIT HIT…and therefore still urge you to get a piece of it…or to add if you already on it.

It goes without saying that I have been wrong before, and maybe still am, and if that is the case, you most likely will lose every dollar you put on the table…Nevertheless, all of the potential gains shown below are very real possibilities…and not just pie-in-the-sky hopes on my part.

I don’t just say it…I’ve seen it 100’s of times before…I do think they can both just go straight, straight down.

THE LONG TERM PICTURE

And the options I would buy here…

And a closer look at the TOPS formed in both markets since last summer…Having gone nowhere, but simply by not going down, HAVE KEPT EVERYBODY BULLISH…

Call me and get on both of them as one “unit” for about $2450…

And one more time, do NOT think that just because I have been waiting, and waiting…and waiting…for this to happen that the current result will be the same as it has been. The high ticks WERE made a year ago in both markets and we’ve been building a major top ever since…that I am 150% convinced is about to IMMEDIATELY RESOLVE SHARPLY TO THE DOWNSIDE…and strongly urge you to not just sit there and watch it happen.

Thanks…Been a rough wait, for me more than anyone reading this…and I might be dead wrong…but I DO think this is about to pay…and PAY BIG.

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans and Corn