March 9, 2021

Here’s a great item I saved last year…Just the perfect example that if you follow what is being touted/implied by the media…with all of that opinion coming straight from industry “experts”…then you are doomed to be wrong…I continue to maintain that 99% of the so called “analysts”  out there can tell you everything there is to know about a commodity except for one thing: WHERE IT IS GOING.

 THIS HEADLINE IS FROM LAST SUMMER…

The implication of this article…? UNDENIABLY, and OVERWHELMINGLY BEARISH. In other words, “glut” is NOT a term generally associated with bull markets. The whole gist of this article (and many others like it last year) was that Cotton should have been going DOWN.

And what happened?

And believe me…That was NOT the only supposedly bearish news out there…I don’t think I ever saw ANYTHING last year, from the media or even a single Cotton analyst, that argued for the bullish side of the market…while it was climbing from the 50’s into the 90’s.

 SHORT SOYBEANS (AND CORN)

But Cotton is not the point here…I still officially remain on the sidelines…The real point is: DO YOU SEE ANYTHING IN THE MEDIA…DO YOU SEE ANY AGRICULTURAL ANALYSTS…WHO ARE EVEN REMOTELY SUGGESTING THAT CORN AND BEANS COULD GO DOWN FROM HERE? And I’m not talking about guys saying, “Maybe we could correct to the downside a bit.” What I mean is, are there ANY “experts” who are even close to being bearish?

Not that I see…A YEAR after all these markets started higher, with all of those same people having been bearish for almost the entirety of 2020, all I NOW hear is commentary like, “We might RUN OUT of Corn and Soybeans this summer.” And “It’s too dry in Argentina,” or,  “Too WET in Brazil!” And “Oh Boy. If China buys like they did LAST (they won’t) year!” So, “Be long Soybeans!” AND I TOTALLY DISAGREE.

I THINK SOYBEANS ARE SET FOR AT LEAST A $3.00 DOWNSIDE MOVE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 MONTHS…AND I THINK IT LITERALLY STARTS ANY DAY NOW.

And just as a reminder, here’s a reprint of my research from my February 3^rd newsletter…And I’d note that a number of the charts below look EXTREMELY similar to the current market shown above…And remember, TOPS ARE NOT SIGNALLED BY SOME “BEARISH” REPORT OR EVENT…After everybody who would buy HAS BOUGHT, on any given day the upside “inertia” just STOPS…and the next thing you get is something akin to a rocket flaming out when it runs out of fuel…JUST DEAD WEIGHT FALLING.

 Soybean Tops Since 1980 – How fast and big they initially went down…

WHEN SOYBEANS ARE READY TO QUIT…

FOR THE FIRST 2-3 MONTHS IT CAN BE BRUTALLY BIG AND FAST ON THE DOWNSIDE….

 Summary? Once they start down, and NEVER, I’ll reiterate, due to some all revealing bearish event or report, they are usually down at least 20+% within 6-8 weeks…in just about EVERY top we’ve had since 1980…Recheck the numbers above for yourself…When they’re done, they are DONE.

Still BUYING FEEDER CATTLE

I am more bullish than ever…

Feeder Cattle….after retracing for several weeks…I swear, MAY FINALLY BE BEGINNING TO RIP IT ON THE UPSIDE…and in the coming months I look for them to be trading sharply opposite the decline I am anticipating in Soybeans and Corn, the two primary feed grains involved in fattening out Cattle. I continue to look for expanding employment and an accelerating economy to produce a bull market in the Cattle Complex similar to the monster moves we have seen during the past year in just about every other commodity we trade…As I have noted previously, Cattle seem to have their own timetable…that they seem to make big moves after (or before) all of the other markets…And I definitely think their time, after moving sideways for months, is NOW.

Give me a call if you agree with any of this and want to get a piece of it…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Soybeans, Feeder Cattle