March 5, 2024

 A focus on $3.25 Corn

After almost 44 years in this chair, there are a lot of things I know about the markets…and a lot things I THINK I know, but am probably wrong about.

But one thing I DO know, and yes, I have said it MANY times before: When markets are trending, they almost ALWAYS go a LOT further than ANYONE ever imagines possible.  And I mean that, truly. Tell me you haven’t seen 100’s (or 1000’s even) of stocks or commodities that went a enormously higher or lower than you EVER would have thought…And that, furthermore, IT’S HAPPENING ALL THE TIME.

And even though I have been pushing hard on these two ideas, SHORT CORN AND SOYBEANS, for multiple dollars on the downside, I still have gotten almost NO takers…especially among my agricultural clients, which in itself is something of an indicator (i.e., farmers didn’t think, and still don’t think, that either of these markets can go any lower).

Meanwhile, every analyst I see is still talking about nothing except the upside, and still talking nothing but, “Are we at the bottom?”

So, one more thing I “know,” and yes, I keep repeating this: If ANYONE, and absolutely if it’s EVERYONE, is looking for the bottom, we’re not even CLOSE to being there.

Barring any funky weather this spring and summer, I CONTINUE TO EXPECT TO SEE BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS MOVING HARD LOWER INTO EARLY SPRING AND/OR LATE SUMMER…AND THAT ANY IDEA OF A BOTTOM WON’T COME UNTIL ABOUT AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER, when, guess what? NOBODY will be talking bottoms, but instead will be pointing to massive supplies and “No place to store it all!”, as in, “They’re having to pile the Corn under tarps in football fields!” And THAT is when you can maybe start talking about getting long this stuff.

I’m going to say this again: When markets are trending, they almost ALWAYS go further than ANYONE ever imagines possible.

I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND PUTS IN SOYBEANS AND CORN…

BUT THE FOCUS HERE IS $4.00 CORN PUTS

And I DO think the wheels are about to fall off here and DO what I have drawn below…and so, in addition to my normal at-the-money put recommendations, I think out-of-the-money puts present represent and explosive potential right now. Obviously, if I am wrong, you can lose every dollar you invest in them, but if I am right, the monster percentage gains shown here are a very real possibility.

Here’s the same option with more time…

Call me if you want some of this…

Thanks,

Bill

770-425-7241

866-578-1001

All option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.

The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans