|
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss
and may not be suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be used when investing in
the markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for
you in light of your financial condition. The opinions and viewpoints
discussed herein are entirely my own. No
representation is being made that a specific strategy or discipline will
guarantee success or profits. Fundamental factors, seasonal and
weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the
markets. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable
sources; however, individuals acting on this information alone are responsible
for their own actions. This material is, or is in the
nature of, a solicitation.
This newsletter is my sales tool. If you like my ideas
and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
having some of your trading done here with me.
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
Also…If you would like to
receive my free research at the same time it is published, contact me and I
will add your name to my email list.
Thanks…Bill Rhyne
August 6, 2026
Last week I had a client text me, “Confused? You’ve been
quiet lately,” noting that I had not written anything for over a month. The
answer is that I have been posting my opinions almost daily on “X” (Twitter)
for the past 3-4 months, and quite honestly, have been more or less very much
the opposite of “confused” in my reads of what have been, and still are,
extremely volatile markets. I’d also add that instead of spending time trying
to convince people to trade my ideas (the cattle market severely damaged my
credibility), I have been trading my own account…and happy to have been doing
so…At any rate, the point is that I will continue to do these newsletters, but if you do want
to know what I am seeing and thinking in the markets on a daily basis, find and
follow me on “X” at @CrokerRhyneCo.
On with the show…
No Longer Short Precious Metals
On March 12, I wrote the following…
If full blown war in the
Middle East, and rocketing Oil Prices (inflationary), and a Sharply Falling
Stock Market haven’t rallied Gold…WHAT WILL? And
as an old hand told me decades ago, “It it ain’t going up, especially when it ought to, then it’s
going DOWN.”
I regard Gold as just another market on the
board, that like all the markets is constantly going up...and down.
Right now, when it "should" have exploded on the upside, it has done
absolutely nothing...which I take as an indication that "there's nobody
left to buy it," that yeah, "Everybody that would/could be long,
already is." And same as Crypto, and Stocks, I think "everybody"
is about to find themselves losing...and in a big way. VERY FAST 20%
“crapouts” are not at all uncommon in Gold…and I do
think that’s what we’re about to see.
And I have been trading
Gold and Silver from the short side ever since…However, with Gold having dropped 30%, and Silver
54%, I do note that quite recently there has been a MASSIVE liquidation in the
futures market Open Interest (total futures contracts), signifying, I think,
that the immediately downside from here might be limited…And there am moving to
the sidelines in both markets. But to be clear, I AM NOT BULLISH
EITHER MARKET…just think this is a good place to take the money on the short
side.
And just to remind you that ALL of these markets are part of the world’s
biggest video game played with trillions of sloshing Dollars…and ALL just bets
on pieces of paper that go up and down based more on Wall Street generated
hype, myths, and bogus “logic/analysis” than anything else, all of which
induces massive percentage price changes based on the FACT OF INVESTORS CHASING
AND FLEEING IDEAS THAT THE BROKERAGE HOUSES INFLUENCE THEM INTO BUYING…OR
SELLING…And the action in Silver is a perfect example of my long held opinion
that NONE OF THESE “VALUES” ARE REAL.
I’d also add: If one year ago, Silver was “valued” at $40,
do NOT be surprised if it ends up there again…or lower.
The Stock Market
On one hand, as I have been saying for quite some time,
during my 46 years doing in this business, I have never seen as much HYPE and
rampant speculation in the markets as I believe we have now…which leads me to
the assumption that sooner or later, the Stock Market will have (or HAS)
reached the point where “everybody is IN,” meaning, “No more buyers left,” and
we will begin the next great BEAR MARKET…The truth is, I do basically think we
are already there, with all the Wall Street generated NONSTOP hype surrounding
the FANG’s, Mag 7’s, AI, Chips, Data Centers, etc., VERY much reminding me of
the Precious Metals and Crypto last winter when the brokerage house touts were
talking $8000 Gold, $200 Silver and $250,000 bitcoin…all of which have
obviously been CLOBBERED…On the other hand however, for decades I have
written that when you are on the highs in a market, and there is ANY evidence
of talking heads calling for a “top,” or “crash,” or referring to “a bubble,”
it probably is NOT THE TOP…or NOT YET. And during recent weeks I have been
seeing enough headlines making those sort of “bubble”
references to have kept me cautious about being short the stock
indices…by which I mean I am still ready to be short…but right now am waiting
for some sort of decent sign of a reversal to make the move.
Some long
term perspective…
I don’t care how great chips,
AI, robotics, data centers, etc. are, OR how much money they supposedly all
going to make, IT DOES NOT MEAN STOCKS HAVE TO GO HIGHER…They CAN go down from
here…and go down a LOT. These ARE just pieces of paper that people are betting
on…and lately, I believe, betting HOT and HEAVY…again just like Gold and Silver
back in January.
There ARE
periods when Stocks more or less go nowhere…regardless of how the economy is
going.
Still a monster trade I
think…and finally HERE…SHORT FEEDER CATTLE
Going to keep it brief here…
A very real bottom line: Unless they are totally and
perfectly hedged (and I promise you, the majority of them are NOT), 100% of the cattlemen who have
bought Feeder steers AT ANY TIME THIS YEAR are already losing BIG, BIG
DOLLARS…and most importantly, STILL have many months more of EVERY
DAY feed, medical and yard costs to endure before those Feeders are
ready for market. See the chart below, and know that if a feeder
operator bought steers at $3.70, to just
break even when he sells those animals 6 months later, he needs to get roughly
$2.50 a pound JUST TO BREAK EVEN…So with the Cash Live Cattle now at $2.30…and
Live Cattle futures out into next year in the mid $2.20’s, unless those prices
miraculously turn around and go straight up…NOW…and STAY UP, Feeder owners are
going to keep losing money…and I think in even bigger and bigger numbers as the
months go by. In a nutshell, I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT WITH ALL THOSE PEOPLE
ALREADY SERIOUSLY UNDERWATER, NEW/REPEAT FEEDER BUYERS ARE GOING TO ALL BUT
DISAPPEAR…AND YEAH…I STILL THINK THIS MARKET IS ABOUT TO ABSOLUTELY GO IN THE
TANK.
Follow up on the row crops….
Back in January, in my “Outlook for 2026,” I wrote the
following…
January
22, 2026
Buy
the Row Crops
THE
MOST UNDERVALUED ASSET CLASS
In
the markets today…
Yep. There are big crops and big supplies everywhere. But that IS
the way it’s been for virtually every commodity market bottom in history. I
don’t care what anybody thinks about what China will do…or how “expensive” our
crops are relative to South America or anywhere else…or how much acreage will
go into any of them…or what current stocks are relative to history…Plain and simple, you ignore all the bearish analysis
out there (by all of the same people who were bullish as we went down for the
past 3 years) and BUY CALLS IN ALL FOUR MARKETS, knowing
that if just one of them gets going, you could still possibly make money if the
other three just do nothing or totally go in the tank. Obviously, all four
could do nothing, meaning losing 100% of what you put on the table…But for my
money, and my concept of risk vs reward, I don’t think it gets any better than
this…and would also note, that typically these four markets do have a tendency
to move in unison…and I would not be buying all four if I didn’t think that
they will all be going up from here. I MIGHT BE DEAD WRONG BUT I THINK THIS IS
A GREAT, GREAT BET.
Back to the present…
Since then, all four markets have had substantial
rallies…AND…substantial sell offs…and even rallies again…exhibiting the same
volatility that has been present in EVERY market we trade…overwhelming due to
the Tariffs, Wars, Threats, Tweets, Untruths and frequent Overnight Policy
Reversals by you know who…to the extent that I have personally reversed my
positions in Corn, Soybeans and Wheat several times during the past few
months…and am, in fact, currently bearish all three of them. I have remained
bullish Cotton…and still am.
I’ve got more…Addressing Treasury Bonds and the Japanese Yen
(and the Dollar in general) but this thing is already way too long.
Okay…So Cattle destroyed me for over a year…but that is not
the first time a market has damaged my credibility…and probably not the last.
But I DO think the big dollars I have envisioned in that trade ARE finally
here, so if you’re one of my guys saying, “not again,” I’m gonna
say “Yes, Goddamnit. Do it again.” Aside from that I really think that
spending$7000 on a “unit” of 1 Feeder Put, 1 Soybean Oil Put and 1 Cotton Call
is a great, great BET. Or combinations of any two of them…Like I’ve said, if I
am wrong, you can lose every dollar you spend, but if I am right, I DO THINK IT
WILL BE IN A BIG WAY.
Ring me up if you have any interest, comments or whatever…
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: All of them