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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss
and may not be suitable for everyone. Only risk capital should be used when investing in
the markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for
you in light of your financial condition. The opinions and viewpoints
discussed herein are entirely my own. No
representation is being made that a specific strategy or discipline will
guarantee success or profits. Fundamental factors, seasonal and
weather trends, and current events may have already been factored into the
markets. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future
results. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable
sources; however, individuals acting on this information alone are responsible
for their own actions. This material is, or is in the
nature of, a solicitation.
This newsletter is my sales tool. If you like my ideas
and want to act on them, I would obviously appreciate
having some of your trading done here with me.
For more info or consultation…
Landline 770-425-7241
Cell 770-366-3070
Also…If you would like to
receive my free research at the same time it is published, contact me and I
will add your name to my email list.
Thanks…Bill Rhyne
June 23, 2026
Short Soybean Oil
Buy the Japanese Yen
As I have frequently stated, I believe the markets move more
on traders getting in and out of positions than anything else. Their opinions
as to why they are bullish or bearish varies, but in most cases, are based, I
believe, on myths…and HYPES…generated by the brokerage houses and the financial
media…which routinely/inevitably results in “everybody” ending up on one side
of a trade---precisely when the direction is about to REVERSE.
What I want to show you here below are two markets
that are severely overloaded to one side — with speculative traders heavily on
one side of the market, and commercial interests, people who use the markets,
being just as heavily on the opposite side. This does not mean that the
moves I am anticipating will happen immediately, but it does, I believe,
suggest that they will be happening at some point. And I would not be in them
now if it were not my belief that those moves were imminent — wherein all of
those speculators who are long, or short, find themselves in a position in
which it is necessary for them to GET OUT.
And, typically, when the markets are this severely
overloaded, as they start exiting the market, the move — either up or down —
tends to be quite sharp, quite big, and quite fast. It goes without
saying that just because the “whole world” is long or short does NOT mean a
reversal will be occurring…This shit is never that simple…But I have seen this
situation play out as I am expecting FAR too many times to ignore the data that
you see on the charts below.
Even though I continue to view all four row crops…Corn,
Cotton, Soybeans, Wheat…as an Asset Class BUY, I see Soybean Oil (one of the
two products of Soybeans, the other being Soybean Meal) as being a Major
Short…Simply because of how INCREDIBLY LONG THE FUNDS ARE…and
with my having observed, for years really, that when Soybean Oil DOES turn down
after a bullish phase, it has a tendency to really and truly just go straight,
straight down…And I DO think the recent rollover here is a strong indication
that this is happening again.
BE SHORT SOYBEAN OIL
And here’s the second one…the Japanese Yen…Only in this
case, Speculative Funds are LOADED ON THE SHORT SIDE…in a market that does have a
history of making sharp reversals…not to mention that the Japanese
powers-that-be have lately been expressing an intent to “defend” their
currency.
And the thing that really gets my attention IS the recent
enormous jump in the number of players involved here…which, without getting
complicated, DOES imply that if all those Specs DO start running, the move up
could be QUITE BIG & FAST.
And I would note that the RECORD OPEN INTEREST (TOTAL
FUTURES CONTRACTS) IN BOTH MARKET DOES INCREASE THE ODD OF A BIG, FAST MOVE. In
other words, BIG participation DOES tend to lead to BIG MOVES as wrong way
traders head for the doors…all at the same time.
And to certainly oversimplify, do note that with both
Commitments and Open Interest, all of their respective numbers DO go UP…and
DOWN.
BUY THE JAPANESE YEN
Here are the options I would recommend in each market…
I view both of these trades as having major leverage as the
moves I’ve drawn are absolutely what I would consider to be NORMAL movement for
these two markets.
And there are any number of ways to go about taking these
positions…with more leverage or less. Contact me if you want to do these...or
explore other possibilities.
I do have positions in other markets which I will be
outlining (hopefully) later this week.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Soybean Oil, Japanese Yen