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December 3, 2025
STILL BEARISH CATTLE AND VIEW THE RECENT 7 DAY
RALLY
AS THE LAST LOGICAL RISK VS REWARD CHANCE TO GET
SHORT
With
Feeder Cattle having broken 80 cents a contract, or 21%, in the past 5
weeks, and Live Cattle having been cracked for 45 cents, or 18%, both
markets have more than equaled their 50 year
averages as to how the Cattle Complex typically trades when a Bull Market
has ENDED…And that IS what we’ve seen. Cattle are now in a bear market, which in my
opinion, most likely will extend decidedly and disastrously lower for at
least the next few years.
However, with volatility having gone through the roof,
and option prices having become almost impossibly expensive to buy, I’d offer that right here,
INTO THIS BEAR MARKET RALLY, is where you establish new shorts in both Live
Cattle and Feeder Cattle…Otherwise, waiting to see some sort
of further sell off to “definitively” indicate that the decline is underway
again will only result in put options becoming more expensive, and from a
risk-reward standpoint, even more difficult to justify buying.
With both of these contracts, do NOT be thinking, “That
looks like too big a move to be expecting.” As I’ve written for years,
there is nothing like the Cattle market when it’s going down. They often
get really nuts with how far, and straight down, they can move.
THE BIG PICTURE
I urge you to NOT be thinking ”I
missed it…” All we’ve done so far is confirm (to me) that we now have a
top…AND YOU USE THIS LAST 6 DAY RALLY TO GET SOMETHING DONE ON THE
SHORT SIDE.
Call if you want to know more…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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