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November 9, 2025
Crash in Cattle Prices
IS NOT STOPPING
I don’t ever know what’s going to happen in this stuff…I
make guesses that are based on my experience, instincts, market histories
and my understanding that THE dominant forces in the markets are
perceptions and mob psychology behavior…that quite often, the facts don’t
really matter. As I’ve often written, what does happen to prices in this
GAME is primarily a function of trader MONEY chasing ideas…and then FLEEING
them…with FLEEING being the stage we entered in Cattle two weeks ago…in a
big way already…which I believe is now going to be SEVERELY compounded by Trump’s announcement below…released after the
markets closed on Friday.
Trump
says he asked DOJ to investigate meat packing companies for driving up beef
prices
07 Nov 2025 02:47:47 PM
WASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald
Trump said on Friday that he has asked the Justice Department to
investigate meat packing companies that he says are driving up the price of
beef.
"I have asked the DOJ to immediately
begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up
the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price
Manipulation," Trump said in a post on Truth Social, without
mentioning the names of the companies.
I CANNOT VIEW THIS AS ANYTHING BUT
DEVASTATINGLY BEARISH
In fact, the only thing I can compare it to would be
what the Cattle complex did in December, 2003, when ONE case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy
(BSE), or Mad Cow Disease, was reported in the state of Washington…And
while this is not the same thing, here is how the markets reacted…Again,
due to ONE CASE of BSE.
How Cattle Traded in December 2003…with an event potentially similar
to now…
LIVE
CATTLE
FEEDER
CATTLE
I obviously don’t know what will be transpiring in the
coming week…beginning right out of the gate on Monday morning…and while I
think it can be every bit as big as what happened in 2003, I certainly
don’t know that it will…But I do believe that this ATTACK ON MEAT PACKERS is
highly likely to absolutely put a FREEZE on buying, at every level
throughout the beef industry…that with the market having just dropped 15%
in the last two weeks, I’m pretty sure that ALREADY scared sh*tless cattlemen are going
to totally DISAPPEAR as buyers next week…while at the same time, tons of
selling (spec funds and hedgers) will be hitting the market…which IS the
recipe for going just as straight down as was the case shown above.
Having no idea as to what we’ll see on Monday, it’s a
waste of time to suggest any options here…I seriously doubt that all we’ll
see is a one day decline on this news, and there WILL be ways to act on
this, even if the markets are limit down…and I do have ideas about how to
do so. But again, at this moment, there’s just no telling what the
situation or numbers might be. At any rate, if you do want to try getting
on, contact me on Monday.
The Bottom Line: I PERSONALLY REMAIN SHORT, AND WITH
THIS NEW PIECE OF NEWS, RECOMMEND EITHER ATTEMPTING TO ADD HERE, OR IF YOU
ARE NOT ALREADY SHORT, FINDING A WAY TO ESTABLISH NEW SHORT POSITIONS.
The Long-Term Picture…The Best Perspective
Call if you want to know more…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle
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