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November 4, 2025
CATTLE ABOUT TO
BUST LOWER AGAIN…
The following announcement came out
early this morning before the Cattle market opened:
I’m gonna tell you that a month ago, this sort of
news would have seen Feeders open up 500 points and then go on to close
limit up for the day. BUT…what we got this morning was a 350
point higher opening…which was IMMEDIATELY followed by an 1100 point
down move that ended with a DEAD LOW CLOSE, down 9.30 cents for the day
($4650 per futures contract). And I will also tell you that
a tremendously bearish response to bullish news is about as bearish as it
gets…In other words, if a purportedly bullish statement by the US SECRETARY
OF AGRICULTURE didn’t rally the Cattle market, WHAT WILL?
The whole Cattle industry is long Live Cattle and Feeder
Cattle up to the gills…EVERYBODY has bought everything they could stand…and
then some…and 13 days ago we started a BEAR MARKET that a year from now
will have ruined a whole bunch of people on the farms and especially in the
feedlots. As I have repeatedly documented: Going back 50 years, when Feeder Cattle are
beginning a bear market they typically drop about
20% in the first 8.5 weeks…And considering how absolutely batshit NUTS this
market got on the upside, I can’t imagine anything less than a 25% decline
over the next few months as this truly, truly becomes a NO BUYERS COLLAPSE.
I CONTINUE TO
RECOMMEND BEING SHORT THE CATTLE COMPLEX…and will reiterate that
it is NOT too late to get on board. This thing is just getting started and
has a long, long way to go.
Truth is…There is probably more leverage here right
now…at half the price.
I never know, but with today’s close, a gap down
tomorrow is quite possible and the prices above
may not be available. Nevertheless, I don’t care how much lower they open
tomorrow, I will be continuing to short both contracts.
Why? BECAUSE NOTHING HAS REALLY HAPPENED YET…AND MY
MINIMAL EXPECTATION IS WHAT I HAVE DRAWN BELOW.
Call if you want to know more…or want to get on…or GET
BACK ON.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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