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October 27, 2025
CATTLE MARKET TRULY BEGINNING TO CRASH
And ROW CROPS STARTING TO LIFT OFF
What to say? Locked limit
down in Feeders for the 2nd day in a row, with today’s expanded
limit to 13.75 cents meaning they have now dropped 44 cents, or $22,000 per
futures contract, during the 7 trading days…with Live Cattle having been
hit for 27 cents, or $10,800 per contract at the same time. AND I FIRMLY
BELIEVE THEY ARE JUST GETTING STARTED…
With action like you can see on the chart below, I have
zero doubt that the MASSIVE Long Position held by Speculative Funds is now
beginning a forced liquidation (SELLING). Next, put that together with the
fact that the equally massive positions held by actual Feeder Cattle buyers
are now also LOSING big bucks (and I assure you, are NOT even thinking of
stepping up to buy again)…and then what you DO have is the scenario I've been describing
as, AN AVALANCHE OF SELLING AND A VACUUM OF BUYING, which does typically
result in a GIGANTIC STRAIGHT DOWN TRADE...And I firmly believe that is
exactly what we are starting to see now.
There’s no point here in
showing you option prices t as tomorrow’s opening trade will probably not
be anything close to where prices finished today.
I will say this however: Do
NOT be thinking, “Oh. I missed it.” Take a look at this next chart and do
understand that NOTHING HAS REALLY HAPPENED YET…that all we really
have is what I’d call a high probability confirmation that the top is
in…And that there is still a LONG, LONG WAY TO GO ON THE DOWNSIDE. It is
not even close to be too late to get on this…
No idea what tomorrow’s open
will be…or what option prices will make sense…Give me a call if you want
ideas as to how to go about getting on…
Buy the USA Row Crops
As noted last week, after
3 ½ years of being bearish Corn, Wheat and Soybeans, I have reversed my
opinion and now see the past year’s action as having formed a major bottom
in all three…and also including Cotton…and that it is now time to BUY ALL
FOUR OF THEM. My basic premise, aside from the fact that they have
had ample time and opportunity to break down lower during the past 5-6
months…and they did NOT…my perception has become that the current mob
psychology attitude towards all of these crops had finally become
overwhelmingly negative, with any number of analysts who for 3 bearish
years have been unendingly bullish, NOW talking in terms of “no where to go but down from here,” citing the trade
war, record crops, and “no place to store it all,” with all of these
“reasons” being exactly the kind of talk you DO get grain market bottoms.
I summed it up with: Virtually
all of the news currently out there is horribly negative and the fact that
it has NOT broken the markets is quite possibly a sign that we have bottomed and that ANY good news will produce a significant rally.
And that IS what I think we
started to see today…LED BY SOYBEANS, UP 25
CENTS & MAKING NEW ONE YEAR HIGHS…
WHAT
TO DO HERE…NOW
I’m keeping this short. My
recommendation is to buy “units” of 1 call each in Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
and Wheat…and forget you own them for the next 3-4 months. If I am
wrong about all of them, you could lose every dollar you invest. If I get
just one right, and the rest dead wrong, I still think you will probably
come out a little bit ahead…And beyond that, you can do the math as to
where you will be if I get 2,3 or all 4 right.
HERE ARE THE OPTIONS I LIKE
HERE…RIGHT HERE…RIGHT NOW AS THEY DO LOOK LIKE THEY ARE ON
THE MOVE…
I say BUY THEM All…or just buy
some of them…but definitely do SOMETHING while they are here…and appearing
to be beginning potentially big moves higher. Buying All Four will cost about $4331…So just do the
math yourself as to what could happen here…And it may be a dumb statement
to make, but for my money, I think it is close to impossible that none of
them will have made some sort of significant move on the upside between now and March.
Call me if you want to know
more…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: All of them
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