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October 19, 2025
IT’S FINALLY TIME TO GET LONG…
About 3 ½ years ago, when Russia had begun their
invasion of Ukraine, with Soybeans at $16, Wheat at $11, Corn at
$8.00, and Cotton at $1.25, I wrote the following:
MAY 7, 2022
It may be a stupid
statement to make, but my opinion is that is just about impossible for
these markets (Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Wheat) to remain at their current
levels…and that all of them WILL get clocked for a minimum of
30% of their top tick values…and that the odds are now EXTREMELY high that
ALL FOUR OF THESE MARKETS HAVE RECENTLY MADE THEIR HIGHS…for YEARS to come.
And while I have been on both the short and long side of
Cotton during the past few years, I have been resolutely bearish
Corn, Wheat and Soybeans ever since that major 2022 high…but am now
reversing that opinion. I THINK IT IS TIME TO BUY ALL FOUR MARKETS,
which, when you get down to it, have basically been the DOGS of the
investment world for pretty much the entire last year.
Without getting into the details of supply and demand,
I’ll simply say that I don’t think the environment surrounding these crops
can get any worse than is now the case…Between Trump’s globally
antagonistic rhetoric and tariffs…and China’s total void of buying…and the
whole world knowing that there are big, big crops now heading towards
harvest, with stories beginning to crank up about, “nowhere to store it
all,”…and lastly the fact that whole herds of agricultural analysts, having
been wrongly “forever bullish” for the past 3 years, are NOW talking in
terms of the “inevitability of lower prices ahead,” MY OPINION
IS THAT A ROUGHLY YEAR LONG BOTTOM HAS BEEN FORMED AND IT IS TIME TO BUY
CORN, COTTON, SOYBEANS AND WHEAT…ALL OF THEM…AS ONE “UNIT.”
For quite some time I have been looking for one last
downside collapse in Corn and Soybeans, with my expectation being that the
final stage of these bear markets would see farmers, still holding massive
stocks from last year’s harvests, capitulating in a “just sell it” straight
down move sharply below the roughly year long
sideways ranges we’ve seen in both markets…But that has not happened , the
result being that I have come to view this firmness as a floor/bottom for
prices, meaning that the next likely move will be to the upside. As noted
above, virtually all of the news out there is horribly negative and the
fact that it has NOT broken the markets is quite possibly a sign that ANY
good news will produce a significant rally.
I LOVE THE MATH HERE…Of
buying calls in all four markets and how the dollars work if just ONE of
them rallies from here…not to mention what happens if two, or three or all
of them get going on the upside.
Regarding SOYBEANS – Do
read this paragraph…
During the 2024-25
season, China's Soybean purchases here were down 75% compared to the
previous crop year. And so far this
fall, they have made ZERO purchases of new crop Soybeans, compared to
having bought about 12.5 million metric tons by this time in 2024...With
China being the world's largest Soybean importer, these are stunning
numbers, but EVEN MORE STUNNING IS THE FACT THAT THIS TOTAL LACK OF BUYING
DID NOT SEND PRICES LOWER DURING 2025...WHICH I CAN NOW ONLY PERCEIVE AS
REFLECTING AN UNDERLYING BULLISHNESS TO THIS MARKET. I mean, really, if all
the shitty, shitty news didn't send prices lower, what will? Soybeans tend
to be quite volatile, and $3-$5 moves have become the norm…My feeling
is that ANY remotely positive news right now could light a bullish fire
under Soybeans, and really, all four of these USA ROW CROPS…
Buying all four of these markets as one unit would
cost about $4400. None of the
potential moves I have drawn here are anything close to being big…simply
the beginnings of bull markets that I think will be taking place for the
next few years. If I am wrong here, and all of them go in the tank, or do
nothing, you can lose everything you put on the table. Do the math yourself
if I am only half way right…or completely so.
SOYBEANS
CORN
WHEAT
COTTON
And a quick note on Cattle, which gapped sharply lower
on Friday…and closed limit down in the Feeders and dead hard on their lows
in Live Cattle. Everything I have written for the past year still
stands…There will come a point when the Cattle complex cracks wide open and
“the bottom falls out” will be a monster understatement…Where they
start dropping, and DON’T bounce back and DO drop 20-25% in within a month
or two…and then go on from there to destroy a whole herd of cattle
investors over the next 18-24 months…At any rate, it will be interesting to
see where this market does in the week ahead…
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND BUYING PUTS IN BOTH FEEDER
CATTLE AND LIVE CATTLE.
And I’ll say it
one more time…The fact that I HAVE been wrong has nothing to do with what
happens next with my recommendations.
Contact me if you want to know more…There are lots of
way to go about participating in any of these ideas.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn, Cotton, Soybeans, Wheat, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
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