|
Main Page
| Philosophy
| Current
Recommendations | Newsletter Archives
Contact Us
August 19, 2025
It’s late…this goes out with any proofing or editing…
Corn and Soy Continuing Lower…
And both have a LONG way to go on the downside…
ALL I CONTINUE TO HEAR REGARDING CORN AND SOYBEANS IS
BULLISH BASED RHETORIC FROM ANALYSTS EVERYWHERE.
For sure, with Wheat, Corn and Soybeans all on or near
new contract lows, the unrelenting bullish attitude held by analysts for
the past 3 BEARISH YEARS (and farmers who have been influenced by them) has
definitely been tempered, but I STILL see talk everywhere suggesting that, either “the lows have
been made,” or that “there’s just no real downside left from here,” in Corn
or Soybeans.
So I am going to say it again:
WHEN THE GRAIN MARKETS HAVE ACTUALLY BOTTOMED, YOU CAN BOOK IT THAT
THERE WON’T BE A BULLISH ANALYST OR FARMER ANYWHERE ON THE PLANET.
And I will also repeat: THE LAST STAGE OF BEAR
MARKETS IN THE GRAINS IS NOT SOME SORT OF QUIET SLIDE DOWN TO THAT VERY
LAST LOW TICK…IT IS TYPICALLY A BIG, FAST STRAIGHT DOWN COLLAPSE AS AN
AVALANCHE OF SELLING COMES OUT OF THE BINS AS FARMERS HAVE TO UNLOAD LAST FALL’S CROPS…HOWEVER LOW THE PRICE MIGHT BE.
I CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND
BEING SHORT BOTH CORN AND SOY…WITH A MAJOR EMPHASIS NOW ON SOYBEAN OIL.
HERE ARE A FEW HISTORICAL CHART EXAMPLES OF WHAT I AM
TALKING ABOUT…And believe me…I have been on the other side of this
trade…where you keep looking and looking and looking for the bottom…BUT IT
GOES 1000 MILES BEYOND WHAT YOU THOUGHT IT COULD ON THE DOWNSIDE…
And I will also tell you, that in every one of these
(FEW among many) cases, the overwhelming majority of analysts were
bullish every step of the way (like NOW) ALL THE WAY DOWN…eventually to
be astounded at how big the moves turned out to be…
So don’t even begin to assume that ANY of the supposed
“expert” analysts saw ANY of these moves coming…I keep saying it: That’s
NOT how this shit works…
  
  
I keep preaching it…THE
MARKETS ALWAYS GO FURTHER THAN ANYBODY THINKS THEY WILL.
Why do I really think
this will KEEP working for me?...Because I do not
have a single farmer, many of whom are sitting on bins full of both crops,
who is the slightest bit interested in getting short. Put that together
with my observation that I DO see analysis EVERYWHERE that basically says,
point blank, “The bottom is in,” or, “There is no
real downside from here.” And I’m telling you, that is NOT what you hear
when a market IS actually finished going down…and generally speaking, that
is exactly what you hear WHEN THERE IS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO.
I am also doing these
with futures…
Soybean Oil is extremely
high relative to Soybeans and Soybean Meal…That WILL change…and it will do
so as Soybean Oil gets hit on the downside…in a BIG way I think…
BUY THIS
PUT IN SOYBEAN OIL…
Contact me if you want to
do something with any of this…They ARE happening…Stop just watching…Go WITH
them.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn, Soybeans, Soybean Oil
|