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August 8, 2025
A VERY BEARISH SIGNAL?
Biggest Down Day in Feeders in YEARS
Yesterday, Cattle futures closed into new highs on the
back of Trump’s newly initiated 50% tariff on Beef imports from
Brazil…taking the total tariff for beef entering the USA up to 76%. With
our Cattle herd being at 75 year lows…and beef supplies already tight…the
idea of basically cancelling further Beef imports from Brazil was therefore
interpreted by the trading masses as being unquestionably bullish for
Cattle prices, thus resulting in New All-Time Highs for both Live
Cattle and Feeder Cattle…WHICH I CAN ONLY REGARD AS A CLASSIC FUTURES
MARKET EVENT…THAT BEING PURPORTEDLY “BULLISH” NEWS COMING AT THE VERY TOP OF A BULL MARKET.
As I have often stated, Bull markets do NOT end with
bearish news…Quite the contrary, they FREQUENTLY end with some newsy
addition to the EXTREMELY WELL KNOWN BULL MARKET STORY that implies, “Sure ain’t stopping here!”, AFTER WHICH THEY OFTEN DO, AND
YEAH, LIKE I’VE SAID OVER AND OVER AND OVER…”REVERSE OUT OF NOWHERE AND
THEN JUST GO STRAIGHT ASS DOWN!”
ON ZERO NEWS TODAY, FEEDER
CATTLE CLOSED DOWN THEIR DAILY TRADING LIMIT…9.25 CENTS OR $4625 PER
FUTURES CONTRACT…WITH LIVE CATTLE DOWN 6.25 CENTS OR $2500 PER CONTRACT.
Limit down off nothing? Is this it? Has the top tick been made?...I
don’t know for sure but I DO know that prices for these animals have
gotten more STUPID than just about anything I have ever seen in this
business…And I DO know that the Cattle contracts DO have a
tendency, as I’ve repeated ad nauseum, to REVERSE THEIR BULL MARKETS,
LITERALLY, FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT…SO I LOUDLY CONTINUE TO RECOMMEND GETTING SHORT BOTH OF
THESE MARKETS…N-O-W.
Don’t be thinking, “I’ll
wait for a bounce,” or “I want to be sure,” or “He’s been wrong about
this.” If you are ever inclined to short anything (some people never do),
and think this makes sense, DON’T WAIT FOR SOME PERFECT MOMENT. Just
contact me and we’ll figure out what works for you.
FEEDER CATTLE
I want to being both Feeders and Live Cattle…But you can
pick either one…Feeders are more expense but move bigger…Live Cattle are
cheaper bout the leverage actually is about the same.
LIVE CATTLE
SOYBEANS
Nobody I personally know wants to take the short side
here…I CONTINUE TO THINK WE HAVE A LONG AND NASTY DROP DEAD AHEAD. For
sure, there are tons of disappointed analysts, traders and farmers
(especially) out there, but, “Get Short here? NO
WAY!”
CORN
Same story here…ANY sign of an uptick and everybody
wants to get long…There are still MASSIVE sales to come from the farmer’s
old crop bins…and new crop.
Contact me if you want to talk about any of this…I have
my hot and cold streaks…and the whole GD Cattle thing has been a drag for
quite some time…But I DO think the odds are through the roof that this is
about to change…
Thanks…Get ON this.
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, Corn, Soybeans
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