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August 7, 2025
MY GUESS IS THERE ARE “NO SHORTS LEFT,”
WHICH MEANS IT’S TIME TO DO EXACTLY THAT…
I can only say that I have never before seen anything
like the magnitude of the move we’ve seen in Feeder Cattle…and more importantly the magnitude of the
speculative long position that has been built there…such that I look
for the inevitable…and OVERNIGHT….reversal that IS coming here to possibly be the biggest and most violent
downturn that has ever happened in the futures markets.
Again…I have never seen anything like this…
All
of those longs DO have to exit at some point, as SELLERS. And when they do,
you can pretty much say there will be NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH BUYERS to take
the other side...which IS the perfect storm (a vacuum) for CRASHING more
straight down than potentially anything in the history of futures trading.
SPEC TRADERS ARE MASSIVELY LONG...AND THERE IS NOT A BULL MARKET IN HISTORY
THAT DIDN'T REVERSE...BASICALLY AS A FUNCTION OF EVERYBODY GETTING OUT
Feeders made new highs today, and yes that means I have
still been wrong here…But I honestly believe that if you are NOT already
there when it starts, it will feel impossible to find a place to make an
entry…that this market could do something like close up as it did today…and
off no apparent news, open crazy lower the next morning and be limit down
(9.25 cents or $4625 per futures contract) in no time at all. And no, maybe
that’s not the way it happens, but my point is, AS THERE ARE JUST WAY TOO MANY SPECS WHO ARE LONG, I SERIOUSLY
DOUBT THAT THIS MARKET IS GOING TO JUST START DOWN WITH SOME SORT OF QUIET
SLIDE…
So yeah…I have been wrong…but I am still beating this
drum and looking for fools like myself to get
short HERE…
Have posted this before…Just to remind myself…and
you…THAT WHEN THEY TURN, THEY DO GO DOWN HARD AND FAST…
Feeder Cattle Declines since 1974
|
Year
|
Size of
Decline
|
Timeframe
|
|
1974
|
36%
|
2
months
|
|
1974
|
30%
|
2
months
|
|
1975
|
22%
|
6
weeks
|
|
1976
|
19%
|
10
weeks
|
|
1976
|
21%
|
5
weeks
|
|
1977
|
16%
|
7
weeks
|
|
1978
|
17%
|
1
month
|
|
1979
|
20%
|
7
weeks
|
|
1980
|
24%
|
6
weeks
|
|
1981
|
21%
|
5
months
|
|
1981
|
16%
|
3
months
|
|
1982
|
17%
|
7
weeks
|
|
1985
|
14%
|
11
weeks
|
|
1985
|
16%
|
2
months
|
|
1986
|
20%
|
3
months
|
|
1996
|
19%
|
6
weeks
|
|
1998
|
16%
|
3
months
|
|
2002
|
15%
|
10
weeks
|
|
2004
|
25%
|
1
month
|
|
2006
|
18%
|
9
weeks
|
|
2008
|
17%
|
4
months
|
|
2008
|
15%
|
9
weeks
|
|
2012
|
17%
|
6
weeks
|
|
2013
|
17%
|
4
months
|
|
2015
|
17%
|
9
weeks
|
|
2015
|
20%
|
3
months
|
|
2016
|
22%
|
3
months
|
|
2018
|
15%
|
5
weeks
|
|
2019
|
17%
|
5
weeks
|
|
2020
|
24%
|
6
weeks
|
|
2024
|
21%
|
7
weeks
|
|
Avg
|
18.8%
|
8.5
Weeks
|
Your call…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle
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