|
Main Page
| Philosophy
| Current
Recommendations | Newsletter Archives
Contact Us
June 23, 2025
Whatever the market might be,
THIS IS THE MOST BEARISH CHART I KNOW…
It is also, as I have previously stated, , the highest probability chart set-up that I believe
you ever get in futures trading. While it definitely does not
mean it will work, this is a trade I will take every time I see it.
The Corn market has basically been trading
sideways for the past 10 months. During that time, my impression has been
that just about every analyst and farmer in the United States has been dead
certain that Corn has bottomed. And as a function of that
essentially BULLISH opinion, farmers have been holding back on selling the
crop they harvested last fall in hopes of higher prices.
The
market has not cooperated however, and as of the latest USDA report, with
US farmers STILL holding 3 Billion Bushels of Corn from last fall’s harvest
(the equivalent of 600,000 futures contracts)…and
with the USDA projecting a RECORD 15.8 Billion Bushel Corn crop harvest
this coming fall, I SEE THIS AS THE RECIPE FOR AN OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE IN CORN
PRICES OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
Simply to make room in their storage bins for that
harvest, and simply because they need the money, and because falling prices
DO induce fear of losing more money, I DO THINK FARMERS ARE BEGINNING
TO UNLOAD THOSE MASSIVE
CORN STOCKS AND PRICES ARE ABOUT TO GO AS STRAIGHT DOWN AS ANYTHING EVER
DOES IN THIS BUSINESS…and in doing so, verify one more time my belief that THE MARKETS ALWAYS GO FURTHER THAN ANYONE EVER THINKS
POSSIBLE.
Whether you want to call it panic selling or not, NEW
LOWS AND SHARPLY DECLINING PRICES DO INDUCE MORE AND MORE SELLING…
Here are my recommendations…
And this can be done in tandem with the 410 put…
I’ve been waiting on this…and admittedly have looked for
it to break through these SIGNIFICANT new contract lows more than once…and
then have watched it bounce back up…However, with the time of the year, and
a monster crop in the ground…AND the fact that ongoing sentiment in this
market, for months on end, has been almost unanimously geared towards,
“When to buy it!,” and having seen these, “It’s bottomed!” situations truly
countless times, my experience has been that…sooner or later…it DOES bust
through the lows…and really DOES just then get racked…really DOES just go
straight ass down…And I THINK WE ARE THERE…THAT THIS IS A GREAT “JUST
GO WITH IT’ TRADE…THAT THIS HAS NOT BEEN “BOTTOMING”…AND THE DIRECTION IS NOW DOWN. JUST GO WITH IT.
I’m not being naïve, and it does not mean I will be
right, but I say: I honestly don’t think it gets any simpler, or easier,
than this.
One of my own trading reminder quotes: There is nothing
that matters more than the chart. Anything you hear, or read, or feel is
irrelevant to what the chart says, and generally, the direction it is
POINTING.
If you see it the same way…Call me an get on some of
this.
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Corn
|