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April 9, 2026
Cotton shows every indication that…
IT IS BREAKING OUT
As I am forever noting…Cotton routinely makes 30-40-50 cent
moves…going back 50 years…And in today’s money slushing environment, I can
easily see it being July…and THEN…have everybody jumping up and down bullish
with Cotton in the 90’s…at least. That IS the way this market moves.
It ain’t last year.
Futures are inherently volatile and when a market has done absolutely totally
nothing for 18 months, the odds, in my opinion, do go through the roof that
when it does move, it will be BIG.
This may
sound naïve, and of course I may be dead wrong, but this is not a question of
IF Cotton is going substantially higher, it’s just a question of how it does
it…So basically, MY RECOMMENDATION IS TO GET LONG NOW AND JUST LET IT HAPPEN,
MORE OR LESS ALL THE WAY INTO THE JULY EXPIRATION.
I have long believed that the way to trade is
to look for trades that you can envision making large percentage moves over a
3-6 month period…and when you find them, put your money on the table through
the purchase of calls or puts…and then try to forget you own them, to begin
with, for a month or two.
Here is a call option I like right here…but
there are any number of ways to get long…Slightly more out of the money, or
even using my long recommended weighted straddle, wherein you buy 2 calls to
every put…and hope you watch the put disappear in value as/if the market goes
up, but conversely, if it goes down, you are in a position to sell the more
valuable put, and less valuable calls, and potentially recoup your initial
investment…and then reposition on the long side.
Call if you want to talk about this…or anything
else. Markets are MOVING everywhere…which I believe is the best environment in
which to be making bets…YES. BETS.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X - @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Cotton