|
March 26, 2026
Still Short.
Still think Stocks and Precious Metals
are far from done on the downside.
I have “lived” in the markets for decades, and while that
doesn’t mean I know what is going to happen in the markets (this IS a guessing
game), I will tell you that my memory of how various events have played out is,
for example, probably every bit as sharp & detailed as an All Star baseball
player being able to recall every inning, every batter and even every pitch of
a World Series he played in 10 years ago. And one very clear, and very
recent “memory” I have is how absolutely HOPPED UP every NYC analyst, strategist, internet talking head (and
any investors I talked to) was last fall regarding Bitcoin, Tech Stocks (Chips,
AI, Semi-Conductors!!!), and yeah, Gold & Silver. I mean, EVERYBODY WAS ALL
BULLED UP ON ALL OF THEM…regardless of how high they were, or
regardless of how much they had already skyrocketed, or as I keep writing, how
everybody WAS in…all of them…so sure there was no end in sight that they were
even willing to “get some more.”
And having today NOT forgotten ANY of the hype, and emotion,
and bullish “certainty” that was everywhere in the media, I am quite comfortable in
believing that the overwhelming majority of both individual and professional
investors are now sitting on, minimally, 20% (and much worse) losses on ALL
that stuff that EVERYBODY WAS BUYING…
With that in mind, my guess is that they are not either
financially or psychologically inclined to buy any more…and more
importantly…that they probably have yet to start hitting the panic button and
selling, especially when Wall Street’s shills are STILL calling this “just a
pullback” or “a buying opportunity.” The bottom line to this scenario,
which I have witnessed a 1000 times in various failed
bull markets, is that at some point the dam breaks, AND SELLING STARTS COMING
FROM EVERYWHERE…and with it, the old adage that “markets tend to fall much
faster than they go up” becomes a reality once again.
I REMAIN BEARISH THE STOCK
INDICES…
I would also caution against believing that Trump can turn
everything around all by himself with some statement or policy change…and where
there might be occasional instances where the crowd’s reaction has
substantiated that idea…this CERTAINLY is NOT an absolute. If it were true, no
president in modern history would have ever experienced a bear market. In other
words, the Dot Com bust, and 2008-09 Great Recession, and 40% crash in Stocks
could all have been prevented with just a few choice words from whomever was
the President at the time…It does NOT work like that. Period. When the Stock Market is falling, the GLOBALLY MASSIVE
“ANIMAL” does not listen to anyone…and as I am forever stating, WHERE ALL OF
THESE PIECES OF PAPER “GO” IS A FUNCTION, IN THIS INVESTING GAME, OF THE MASSES
CHASING IDEAS…AND THEN FLEEING THEM…i.e. Money getting IN and money getting
OUT.
I am still short Gold and
Silver…
And they have NOT been “stair-stepping lower.” They have
been crashing…and I believe will continue to do so.
Start with this: It would be beyond a stretch to
suggest/believe that ANY of the action you see in Gold and Silver has ANYTHING
to do with ANY of the fundamental nonsense you hear supposed
"strategists" and "analysts" talking about. These recent
moves are fantastic examples of the FACT (in my opinion) that the price
movement in virtually all of the markets is a function of MONEY CHASING AND
FLEEING MEDIA GENERATED THEMES...Really, if you want to try to explain even
half of the big percentage swings you see here, good luck. Believe me, after 46
years in this business, I DO know ALL of those supposed rules and relationships
that supposedly govern how various markets trade…And they are all nothing but
MYTHS. For sure, sometimes those myths can influence mobs of money in a
“this-makes-sense” direction, but in the end, it does come down to, like I
said, MONEY CHASING AND FLEEING (as losers) UNANIMOUSLY POPULAR IDEAS.
Really…Do you actually want to believe that this has
anything to do with reality?
Contact me anytime…I DO write this newsletter in the hopes
of earning your business.
Thanks,
Bill
Now on X @CrokerRhyneCo
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products mentioned within: Stocks Indices, Gold, Silver