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February 5, 2026
Repeating: Everybody is long Everything.
I have never seen speculation so rampant.
And it looks to me like Metals and Crypto are
DONE…
AND THE STOCK MARKET IS NEXT IN LINE
They’ve blown Crypto out of the water. And then the
Metals…both of which I’d guess have seen their highs for years, or maybe
even decades, to come. For sure, you’ll get all sorts of Internet and Wall
Street talking heads commentary (NONE of whom remotely saw these crashes
coming) that advises, “This is just they way they
trade…So hang on or view these sell offs as a buying opportunity,” which,
btw, is the same mentality that was held regarding Gold when I entered this
business in 1980…and then watched this “haven” go down in price for 20
years.
So yeah, there will undoubtedly be rallies in Bitcoin,
Gold, Silver, Copper, etc., but I’d offer that it’s GAME OVER for any
market that can drop by 30-40% in a matter of days or weeks…with the recent
enormous percentage moves in the supposed “values” of those markets also
further evidencing my long stated contention that virtually the entire
investment scene, tethered to the exchanges, banks and brokerage houses, is
nothing but a giant mob psychology game. I mean, really, as ONE example,
you cannot tell me that the “value” of Silver going from $117 to $71 in 3
days, not to mention watching it double its “value” prior to that in less
than a month, could possibly be based in anything other than massive fund
flows, with everyone piling into the idea of “It’s going up! Get on now!”
This is NOT some random isolated example.
And you can extrapolate it to the entire market because these very same
“analysts’ are behind every stock that ever goes anywhere. These people are
the source for 99% of the information that the public bases their investing
decisions on…And they DON’T know.
Check this out…
And this is what happened…
In other words, just 3 months ago, 73 analysts on
Wall Street had ZERO reasons to expect a downturn in price of the company
that basically has been synonymous with computers for 40 years…and is
running on approximately 70% of the world’s desktops today? If that
single example doesn’t tell you that it is, in a word, just dumb to believe
the brokerages know anything at all…And beyond that, it should be alarming
that those same people are about 90% bullish on the rest of the so called
“Mag 7,” which is another way of saying, same as it was in October,
“Everybody is in,” or “Everybody already owns them,” or as I’ve been
saying, “EVERYBODY IS LONG EVERYTHING.” This IS a game…I think the next big event is for the
public to be waking up 3-6 months from now and realizing that their
portfolios are down 30+%.or worse, with their
brokers having been telling them, “just hang on.”
And don’t kid yourself and think, “Oh, that’s just one
time when they totally missed something.” They DON’T know…
Statistically,
any number of measures indicate that the American public is more invested
in the Stock Market than at any time in history…Also that MARGIN DEBT IS AT
RECORD LEVELSS…And it no mystery that when markets reach the
point where, “Everybody is in,” or “Everybody has already bought this
story,” IS when tops are made…I mean, THERE IS A FINITE
AMOUNT OF BUYING THAT CAN BE DONE in any commodity or piece of paper…and
when you DO reach that full-up-the-gills point, IS when the next major
event you get is ALL OF THOSE FORMER BUYERS, PROFESSIONALS AND THE PUBLIC
ALIKE, TURNING INTO SELLERS…maybe in dribs and drabs at first (“Oh, this is
a buying opportunity.”) that sooner or later evolves into an absolute
selling disaster…And I certainly don’t know but I CONTINUE TO THINK THE
STOCK INDICES ARE A SELL.
Here's one way to get
short…
And My Other Big Short…
And don’t just think,
“He STILL wants to be short?”
Today’s Cattle contracts look SO much like the last
major top in Cattle, in late 2014-early 2015, where, believe me, we had the
SAME story, "Smallest herd in 50 years!", and had everybody in the
business totally, totally bulled up…But a year later? The entire market had tanked
by 40%...and stayed down there for another 5 years…in spite of the fact
that we still had, one more time, “the smallest herd in 50 years.”
I’m telling you, just like $129,000 Bitcoin in October,
now at $65,000...and I don't care WHAT the bullish STORY is...THIS IS NO
DIFFERENT. Feeders got hit for 20% in two months last fall, and then
recovered for the last two months, which I see as nothing more than a
normal “test of the highs,” BEFORE THE REALLY BIG SELL OFF BEGINS…AND MAYBE
TAKES THIS DOWN HARDER THAN IT DID BACK IN OCTOBER. Believe me, this IS
just another market that the crowd piles into (both in futures and the real
animal), and in a environment
where Bitcoin, and Metals, and Stocks are all getting hit, DO YOU REALLY
THINK CATTLE ARE GOING TO SIT UP HERE ALL ALONE BY THEMSELVES? I say, “No f’ing way!”
THIS SHORT IS BIGGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN. If you got burned by it, FORGET what happened (like a Closer in
Baseball) and
take a hard cold look at this and decide for yourself whether or not
getting short again is worth it. For me, and it doesn’t mean it will work
now, it’s an absolute no brainer.
Ditto here…
Ignore the “no cattle STORY.” THIS IS A SHORT…RIGHT
HERE, RIGHT NOW…AND QUITE POSSIBLY GOT IT STARTED TODAY…
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All
charts, unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE
FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT
INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE
WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: All of them
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