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February 4, 2025
Cattle Down Again
…and MOVING
In
spite of TWO “BULLISH” REPORTS during the past few weeks, the CATTLE MARKETS
CLOSED LOWER AGAIN TODAY…AND FEEDERS ARE NOW 11 CENTS OFF THEIR HIGH…AND LIVE
CATTLE 9 CENTS OFF THEIR HIGH.
BOTH
CONTRACTS LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE ANY NUMBER OF CATTLE TOPS DURING THE PAST 50
YEARS…
See for yourself…
USING THE SIMPLIFIED “CLOSE ONLY” CHARTS BELOW OF EVERY
SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN FEEDER CATTLE SINCE 1974, YOU CAN DECIDE FOR
YOURSELF IF YOU THINK MY OLD HACK OBSERVATION IS VALID.
DO note:
When they do turn down, they tend to just go…They do not
hang around…They tend to quickly fall away from the high, meaning they do NOT
give you some beautiful opportunity to think, and plan, and look for that
“perfect point to short again somewhere NEAR the high tick.”
And when they ARE moving, they tend to do it with frequent
long strings of consecutive down days.
AND…THEY
DO TEND TO KNOCK OFF 20%+ IN A MATTER OF WEEKS OR MONTHS…WHICH
I BELIEVE IS A FUNCTION OF THE FACT THAT EVERYONE WHO ALREADY OWNS, OR HAS
BOUGHT, FEEDERS ANYWHERE WITHIN 5-10% OF THE RECENT HIGHS IS PROBABLY ALREADY LOSING MONEY
ON TRUCKLOADS OF STEERS THAT THEY STILL HAVE TO FEED AND SPEND MONEY ON, EVERY
DAY, FOR ANOTHER 5-6 MONTHS…AND AS CONSEQUENCE, SOME LARGE PERCENTAGE OF ROUTINE FEEDER BUYERS
TOTALLY DISAPPEAR FROM THE EQUATION…RESULTING IN A “VACUUM”
OF BUYERS…WHICH LEADS TO FEEDER PRICES GOING RELATIVELY STRAIGHT, STRAIGHT DOWN
FOR A FEW MONTHS…AGAIN…TIME AFTER TIME AFTER TIME FOR THE PAST 50 YEARS.
THIS IS WHAT TODAY’S MARKET LOOKS LIKE…AT THE HIGHEST PRICES
IN HISTORY…
Note the percentage size of the declines…and how long it
took to do so…
That last decline, ending in December 2023, was one of my
worst decisions in a long time…The market was down 21%...and I didn’t take the
money…which was just stupid.
Anyway here’s the present again…And if you do see this at
all the way I see it, I URGE YOU TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT NOW…This is not some
sort of sales hype on my part…WHEN THEY TURN, THEY DO QUICKLY GET
IT GOING ON THE DOWNSIDE…AND THEY DO TEND TO GO A LONG WAY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A NON-STOP FASHION.
This IS starting to happen…
Call me!
Thanks,
Bill
770-425-7241
866-578-1001
All
option prices in this newsletter include all fees and commissions. All charts,
unless otherwise noted, are by Aspen Graphics and CRB.
FUTURES
TRADING IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.
THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT
OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE
RESULTS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE YOUR TRADING EXPERIENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST
PERFORMANCE.
The author of this piece currently trades for his own
account and has a financial interest in the following derivative products
mentioned within: Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle